FROM: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/
Dated: August 10, 2010, 5:29 pm
ANDREW C. REVKIN
Pakistan flooding
James Hill for The New York Times Russian fires: The Ministry of Emergency Situations says the 10,000 firefighters it has deployed are overwhelmed.
Two climatologists, Peter Stott at the British Met Office and Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, have separately described atmospheric dynamics that appear to link the extreme rains and flooding in Asia with Russia’s unrelenting, extraordinary heat and resulting conflagrations.
Stott does so with a column in The Guardian.
Trenberth weighs in in a nice explanatory piece in Wired Science by Brandon Keim.
To my eye, the best ongoing tracking of these extraordinary weather events is coming from Jeff Masters at the Weather Underground Wunderblog.
Below you can read an excerpt from Masters’ latest post, in which he cites a study that I wrote about in 2006 that detected a long-term shift in the monsoon toward more rain coming in heavy downpours. He also posts some useful links for people interested in helping with donations for Pakistan:
Are this year’s monsoon floods due to global warming?
No single weather event can be attributed to climate change, but a warming climate does load the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can
evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of
heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain
events decreased over the past 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, “These findings are in tune with model projections and
some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios.” We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon
floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are
likely to climb dramatically in coming decades.
References
Goswami, et al., 2006, ” Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment”, Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 – 1445
DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027
Dave’s Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China.
Donations urgently needed
The massive humanitarian crisis in Pakistan requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in
Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:
This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up.”
She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:
MERLIN medical relief charity
The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word “SWAT” to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort. [Read the rest...]
Write a comment